近50年汾河上中游流域径流对气候变化的响应分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

左海凤 《水文》2006,26(5):72-75

以汾河上中游干流水文站近50年的气象水文资料为基础,采用多元回归及敏感性分析方法,对径流、降水和气温三者之间变化规律以及区域水文对气候变化的响应进行了定量分析,结果表明气候变暖导致了蒸发的加剧,并一定程度上造成了汾河干流径流量的减少。预估暖干气候条件下引发干旱灾害的可能性将增强。  相似文献   

多孔介质中水敏性应用的研究综述     

张晓辉  郑西来  林国庆  吴俊文  周骏 《水文地质工程地质》2006,33(4):81-84

水敏现象在石油、岩土和环境工程等领域广泛存在。有效地控制水敏现象的发生，不仅具有科学意义，还有一定的经济价值。本文在广泛查阅国内外研究成果的基础上，总结了水敏性在石油、岩土和环境工程方面应用的研究进展，并在此基础上提出了水敏性研究的发展方向。  相似文献   

特殊地形及地形梯度对西昌发射场暴雨的影响     

汪正林  党建涛 《气象》2006,32(12):36-42

研究了西昌发射场特殊地形及地形梯度对其暴雨天气的影响。对比分析表明：2004年6月23日暴雨过程属于低涡切变型暴雨，6月27日暴雨过程属于两高辐合型暴雨。利用MM5V3．7进行了多组地形敏感试验，结果表明：场区北侧山脉对场区降水量影响明显，西昌东侧山脉对西昌降水量影响明显。地形梯度分析表明，西昌地区所处的河谷地形和场区所处喇叭口小地形，有利于中小尺度气压扰动的发生、发展和暴雨的产生，当地形梯度减弱时，降水量相应减弱。  相似文献   

浅淡物候指标在农业生产上的应用     

栗锡龄  王月梅  王有根  李金莲 《山西气象》2006,(4):23-25

通过对物候资料与气象资料的对比分析找出与农业界限温度对应的物候指标,以物候指标为依据,就可掌握农业四季的初终期和农业界限温度的出现时间,并以物候指标预告农时,简便易行,对指导农业生产有广泛的应用价值。  相似文献   

Applications of Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation to the Study of the Stability and Sensitivity of the Jovian Atmosphere     

姜智娜 《大气科学进展》2006,23(5):775-783

A two-layer quasi-geostrophic model is used to study the stability and sensitivity of motions on smallscale vortices in Jupiter’s atmosphere. Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) and linear singular vectors (LSVs) are both obtained numerically and compared in this paper. The results show that CNOPs can capture the nonlinear characteristics of motions in small-scale vortices in Jupiter’s atmosphere and show great difference from LSVs under the condition that the initial constraint condition is large or the optimization time is not very short or both. Besides, in some basic states, local CNOPs are found. The pattern of LSV is more similar to local CNOP than global CNOP in some cases. The elementary application of the method of CNOP to the Jovian atmosphere helps us to explore the stability of variousscale motions of Jupiter’s atmosphere and to compare the stability of motions in Jupiter’s atmosphere and Earth’s atmosphere further.  相似文献   

Seismic Displacement of Gravity Walls by a Two-body Model     

Constantine A. Stamatopoulos  Eleni G. Velgaki  Arezou Modaressi  Fernando Lopez-Caballero 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2006,4(3):295-318

Gravity walls retaining dry soil are modeled as a system of two bodies: (a) the gravity wall that slides along the wall-foundation soil boundary and (b) the critical soil wedge in the soil behind the wall. The strength of the system is defined by both the frictional and the cohesional components of resistance. The angle of the prism of the critical soil wedge behind the wall is obtained using the limit equilibrium method. The model accounts for changes in the geometry of the backfill soil behind the wall by considering the displacements at the end of each time step under limit equilibrium. The model shows that the standard (single) block model is over-conservative for the extreme case of critical-to-applied-seismic acceleration ratios less than about 0.30, but works well for cases where this ratio ranges between 0.5 and 0.8. The model is applied to predict the seismic displacement of gravity walls (a) tested in the shaking-table and (b) studied numerically by elaborate elasto–plastic analyses.  相似文献   

Multi-year Simulations and Experimental Seasonal Predictions for Rainy Seasons in China by Using a Nested Regional Climate Model (RegCM_NCC). Part Ⅰ: Sensitivity Study     

DING Yihui  SHI Xueli  LIU Yiming  LIU Yan  LI Qingquan  QIAN Yongfu  MIAO Manqian  ZHAI Guoqing  GAO Kun 《大气科学进展》2006,23(3)

A modified version of the NCAR/RegCM2 has been developed at the National Climate Center (NCC), China Meteorological Administration, through a series of sensitivity experiments and multi-year simulations and hindcasts, with a special emphasis on the adequate choice of physical parameterization schemes suitable for the East Asian monsoon climate. This regional climate model is nested with the NCC/IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics) T63 coupled GCM to make an experimental seasonal prediction for China and East Asia. The four-year (2001 to 2004) prediction results are encouraging. This paper is the first part of a two-part paper, and it mainly describes the sensitivity study of the physical process parameterization represented in the model. The systematic errors produced by the different physical parameterization schemes such as the land surface processes, convective precipitation, cloud-radiation transfer process, boundary layer process and large-scale terrain features have been identified based on multi-year and extreme flooding event simulations. A number of comparative experiments has shown that the mass flux scheme (MFS) and Betts-Miller scheme (BM) for convective precipitation, the LPMI (land surface process model I) and LPMII (land surface process model Ⅱ) for the land surface process, the CCM3 radiation transfer scheme for cloud-radiation transfer processes, the TKE (turbulent kinetic energy) scheme for the boundary layer processes and the topography treatment schemes for the Tibetan Plateau are suitable for simulations and prediction of the East Asia monsoon climate in rainy seasons. Based on the above sensitivity study, a modified version of the RegCM2 (RegCM_NCC) has been set up for climate simulations and seasonal predictions.  相似文献   

Elman神经网络在低渗储层敏感性预测中的应用   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

周锋德  姚光庆  王国昌  赵志魁  王立武  苗洪波 《地质科技情报》2007,26(6):91-94

油气储层敏感性是制约低渗储层有效开发的重要因素之一,但在勘探开发早期储层敏感性预测及分布规律的研究受到资料不足的限制.从实验敏感性分析结果入手,对Elman神经网络预测储层敏感性的过程及方法进行了系统的分析,并提出了通过设置虚拟井来预测储层敏感性平面分布的方法.结果表明:①影响低渗储层敏感性的主要因素有蒙皂石、伊利石、高岭石、绿泥石、伊-蒙混层、石英、长石的体积分数,孔隙度和渗透率;②Elman神经网络能够很好地预测低渗储层的敏感性,预测结果与实测结果绝对误差的平均值均低于0.04,水敏性样品的预测结果与实测结果绝对误差的平均值为0.001;③通过设置虚拟井位,能够很好地预测储层敏感性的平面分布规律.  相似文献   

The creative reconstruction of the Internet: Google and the privatization of cyberspace and DigiPlace   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Matthew A. Zook  Mark Graham   《Geoforum》2007,38(6):1322-1343

The Internet has often been portrayed as the ultimate leveler of information where existing hierarchies of power and privilege are undermined by meritocracy. Some websites and functions are, however, more equal than others. In particular, search engines such as Google have been a key means to construct meaning out of disorder. This ordering (or enclosing of the Internet commons), however, comes at a cost as a location within the top 10 Google search results, marks the boundary (albeit a fluid one) between the core and the periphery of the Internet. The recent incorporation of spatial elements into the Google indexing raises fresh and geographically relevant concerns. This article focuses on the construction, access and use of Google derived rankings to deploy geo-referenced information in the physical environment and the way this melding of code and place affects how people interact with place. Using the theoretical concept of DigiPlace this article analyzes how Google Maps and Google Earth are structured and shape what appears (and what does not) in cyberspace and DigiPlace. Of particular concern are the implications of a private corporation controlling this new space.  相似文献   

集合敏感性分析在北半球中纬度高影响天气中的应用     

郑明华  杜钧  Brian A.Colle 《气象科学进展》2020,10(2):42-57

总结回顾了集合敏感性分析(ESA)在诊断中纬度高影响天气预报不确定性中的应用。作为一个简单高效且不需要大量计算资源的方法,集合敏感性分析主要被应用在中纬度气旋、台风或飓风的温带转换,以及在强对流过程中诊断预报误差和不确定性的来源。集合敏感性方法极有灵活性,可以根据实际需要改变不同的预报变量和初始场。在对2010年美国东岸圣诞节暴风雪的分析中,集合敏感性分析通过三种形式来诊断了预报不确定性的初值敏感性,即基于EOF分析的敏感性、预报差别的敏感性,以及基于短期预报误差的向前积分敏感性回归。三种方法证实气旋路径的不确定性主要和位于美国南部大平原的短波槽初始误差相关。此外,气旋强度的不确定性还和产生于北太平洋向下游延伸的罗斯贝波列相关。集合敏感性分析方法对于分析中纬度气旋的不确定性、诊断初值敏感性、分析误差发展机制都非常有效。集合敏感性分析也被应用于分析台风/飓风的温带气旋转换过程的不确定性。在对2019年美国首个主要登陆台风Dorian的分析中发现,加拿大CMC的集合预报主要不确定性来自于强度的不确定性,而这个不确定性与初始时刻的大尺度环流型有关,较连贯的信号可以追溯至东北太平洋的前倾槽。而NCEP和ECMWF的不确定性主要在于气旋位置的东北—西南向移动,而敏感性主要和飓风系统本身(即其北部低压区和中纬度槽)的锁相有关。分析结果进一步验证了集合敏感性分析对诊断模式之间的不一致性,以及模式成员之间不一致性的不确定性来源和发展过程的可靠性。集合敏感性分析方法综合了集合预报、资料同化和敏感性分析,因此对于资料同化技术改进、诊断模式误差(或者缺陷)、附加(目标)观测最优策略,以及评估观测对预报的影响等都有重要意义。同时可以更有效地利用集合预报信息,帮助预报员提高情景意识,最终减少高影响天气预报中的决策失误。  相似文献